OK, So I'm No Octopus

As Paul the Octopus went undefeated yesterday, once again correctly picking the result of Germany's third-place match, I'll simply assert, that's why I don't bet on matches/games. Having seen Spain three times while in South Africa, their form just did not strike me as the dynamic juggernaut they have been the past couple years.

Then too, Germany's form, up until the semifinal, had been one of a confident, competent team, playing at the top of their game. Certainly, missing Mueller on the flank, due to his unjust second yellow card, was a significant factor in the result with Spain., but to their credit, Spain did what they do, possess, probe, attack, and ultimately, find a way to get out with a result, which these days, seems to be a 1-0 score line.

Since I was somewhere over the North Atlantic when the semifinal was being played, wanted to take in the recorded match, and the third-place game, before offering any thoughts on the final. In the semifinal, Germany played very differently than they had been playing in the tournament to that point. They absorbed too much possession, and were not aggressively seeking the counterattack opportunities when presented. Again, the loss of Mueller's pace, and finishing form, were factors, as was Miroslav Klose's injury, hampering his effectiveness.

The final should be  different story, as both teams are seeking their first World Cup championship, and both have the hunger of their respective nations fueling them. Holland has been to the final before, on a couple of occasions, but only one of the current players was even alive when that last occurred in 1978. Spain are finals debutantes, having long worn the mantle of an underachieving side, finally shaking that stigma with the 2008 European Championship.

The two teams are both on are on long, successful runs. The Netherlands went through their entire World Cup qualification process undefeated, and are the only team in South Africa that has been through the entire draw undefeated as well.

 Spain too, has grown accustomed to success, only losing twice in their past 56 matches. They look to be the first World Cup Champion to have lost their first Group Stage match (1-0 to Switzerland), then go on to win the title. Their lifeline has been the uncanny scoring touch of forward David Villa, who always finds a way to get the shot off, and almost as frequently, that effort is on frame. Along with Uruguay's Diego Forlan, Mueller and Holland's Wesley Sneijder, he leads the tournament with five goals scored.

Speaking of Sneijder, he and his Spanish counter part, Xavi, represent the modern play-making central midfielder. They are both small in stature, but exceptionally quick, and very decisive on the ball. More often than not, their passes are both forward and attack-minded. Of the two, Sneijder gets the edge from the standpoint of finishing, but Xavi is one of the world's most efficient passers from a completion standpoint.

Today represents the eighth all-European final in the World Cup. From a historical perspective between Holland and Spain, the series is a stalemate. The teams have met nine times, each winning four, with one draw. Interestingly, none of those matches have been in World Cup competition, and of recent meetings, Holland has won the last two, dating back to 2000, with the last match being a 2-1 Dutch win in 2002.

With that scene set, I am not, predicting a winner, but will merely remind all that last summer in South Africa, #1-ranked Spain took one of their rare recent losses to the U.S., 2-0, in the semifinals of the Confederations Cup. In March, Holland beat the U.S., 2-1, in Amsterdam, in a friendly, with one of Holland's goals coming off a questionably-awarded penalty kick, and the other off a shot deflection, which dramatically changed directions on 'keeper Tim Howard.

Those results mean nothing now, and although Paul the Octopus has chosen Spain, this is his first venture into the uncharted waters of predicting a team other than Germany. For both teams, they also look to sail into uncharted waters, hoisting FIFA's World Cup trophy to their countrymen, and the world, for the first time.

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