Up in the Air, Out on a Limb

Well, today (and yesterday) are the trip back from South Africa to "the real world". Am currently in Schipol Airport in Amsterdam, awaiting my flight to Atlanta, so figured I'd put up some thoughts on today's semifinal, the winner of which, will play Holland, Sunday.

While having my bag shrink-wrapped, had a discussion with one of the orange-clad guys working that kiosk, as to whom he thought would win tonight, Germany, or Spain. His reasoning was Spain, since they play more like Barcelona, and Germany plays like Bayern Munich. I had to politely disagree, commenting that after seeing Spain three times in South Africa, they weren't exactly playing like Barcelona, more like Athletico Madrid.

Where I think it will go wrong for Spain against Germany is in the midfield, where despite the obvious world-class abilities of Xavi and Iniesta, their diminutive size will be a problem against the athletic, and fast, Germans.

Another factor working against the Iberians is their one-dimensional offense, which has been David Villa, or nothing at all. The breath-taking finishing abilities of Fernando Torres, so evident in England's Premier League with Liverpool, have been MIA in South Africa. Service to him in the attacking third has been non-existent, and Torres receiving the ball, back to goal in the center circle, as below, is going to accomplish nothing.

While on a furious finishing run at the World Cup, David Villa will be limited against the larger, stronger German defense, which is currently being backed by exceptional goalkeeping. His ability to win headers in the goal mouth, as this one, will not be a factor

Another attacking option, Cesc Fabregas off the bench, could be of some use, as he is used to the rough-and-tumble Premiership, but he still falls under the category of a technical, 'pretty' player. The athleticism of the German side may well neutralize the ball possession skills of he, and the other central midfielders.

And the physical nature of Spain's opponent will be even more a factor than against Paraguay in the quarterfinals, when 50-50 balls were contested upon receipt on most occasions.

Indeed, all of these assumptions may prove wrong, as ultimately, that is why they play the match. Spain, however, has not been in the same form they have been the past two years, and the two hot teams really seem to be Germany, and the already-through, Holland.

Spain may be able to impart their possession and match movement onto Germany, but in the end, I believe this young, talented, and confident German side will absorb those possessions, and counterattack to the same effectiveness that did in Australia, England, and Argentina, teams that are not prone to allowing four goals in such critical matches.

I wish I had some Germany images to share in this as well, but despite shooting 15 matches in South Africa, scheduling and locations never allowed for me to get to one of their matches, that, and not being there Sunday for the final, are among my few regrets. Those regrets are balanced though, by a wonderful five weeks, which is now just a nine-hour plane ride back across the pond, from being one of my fondest experiences.

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